***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 0.0 12.2 2.1 81.8 78.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 11.2 12.4 12.3 2.3 84.1 80.2 8.7 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 12.6 14.3 12.0 2.1 84.1 79.0 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 7.4 7.9 9.7 1.8 82.5 76.8 5.0 6.3 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 9.6 10.2 9.6 1.7 82.4 76.7 7.3 8.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 8.0 8.3 7.5 1.6 79.2 74.4 5.8 7.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 10.9 12.0 12.3 2.3 85.0 80.0 8.9 10.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 3.3 4.0 7.9 1.7 80.7 75.5 0.9 1.7 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 10.1 10.8 10.1 1.8 82.9 77.5 7.7 8.4 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 10.1 10.6 8.7 1.8 82.3 76.8 8.0 8.6 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 9.4 9.9 9.0 1.6 82.1 75.3 7.4 8.4 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 7.9 8.4 8.6 1.6 79.2 74.1 6.1 6.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 8.6 9.1 7.9 1.5 76.9 73.1 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 10.7 11.1 10.3 1.9 85.1 79.5 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 10.9 11.6 10.2 1.8 82.6 77.6 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 10.5 11.0 8.5 1.5 78.7 73.7 8.3 9.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 11.0 11.9 12.2 2.3 85.3 80.9 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.1 8.2 1.8 83.9 77.8 5.8 6.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 10.7 12.2 12.2 2.2 83.7 80.1 8.8 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 4.7 5.2 6.4 1.8 82.0 76.0 2.8 3.5 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 10.4 11.3 11.2 2.0 82.9 77.9 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 10.3 10.4 12.1 2.2 83.9 80.2 8.6 9.3 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 10.6 11.0 11.8 2.1 83.8 80.0 8.4 9.3 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 9.9 10.3 10.0 1.9 84.5 78.9 8.0 9.1 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 10.8 11.7 10.6 2.0 84.7 77.6 8.3 9.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 8.7 8.8 8.1 1.5 76.8 72.5 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 11.7 12.9 11.5 2.1 83.5 78.0 8.6 9.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 8.8 9.2 9.8 1.7 81.8 76.3 6.7 7.7 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 7.8 8.3 7.5 1.9 84.6 77.7 5.4 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 11.3 12.2 12.3 2.2 84.2 79.6 8.7 10.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------