***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2012.-29.04.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 1.7 83.9 77.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 9.8 11.1 10.1 1.4 86.4 76.0 6.8 8.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 11.7 12.4 10.0 1.3 78.2 72.7 9.0 10.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 6.1 8.0 7.9 1.6 86.8 80.8 3.4 4.7 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 7.6 8.4 7.8 1.1 75.7 70.6 5.8 6.4 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.8 5.5 1.1 76.5 73.2 4.3 5.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 9.9 11.2 10.2 1.5 88.0 76.9 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 1.3 1.5 5.5 0.9 74.5 67.8 -0.1 0.7 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 7.4 7.9 7.9 0.8 66.0 63.3 6.2 7.2 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 7.5 8.1 6.3 0.8 68.7 64.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 47 53 100 7.5 7.8 6.9 0.7 69.2 64.1 5.6 6.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.5 6.1 0.9 73.8 68.5 4.5 5.8 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.7 7.6 5.8 0.6 66.7 62.3 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 8.1 8.8 8.0 0.7 65.1 62.4 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 9.1 9.4 8.9 1.4 81.0 77.7 7.4 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 9.0 9.3 6.5 0.7 68.2 65.5 6.9 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 9.8 11.1 9.8 1.4 83.9 74.8 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 5.7 6.1 5.4 0.6 62.4 60.3 4.3 5.4 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 9.5 10.5 9.9 1.3 79.8 74.2 6.9 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 3.2 2.9 3.4 0.7 67.4 62.7 1.5 2.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 8.5 9.2 9.5 1.2 76.5 70.5 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 8.6 9.2 9.5 1.1 74.9 71.1 6.9 7.1 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.8 9.1 9.4 1.0 68.6 68.9 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 7.1 7.6 7.6 0.7 62.9 61.7 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 9.2 10.6 9.4 1.7 84.2 77.3 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.6 5.6 1.0 76.6 70.7 5.7 6.7 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 10.3 12.3 10.0 1.8 87.0 78.3 6.6 7.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 7.6 8.2 8.3 1.5 84.6 79.7 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.7 4.4 0.3 53.4 53.5 3.9 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 10.0 11.5 10.3 1.5 86.4 76.0 7.0 8.1 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------