***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 31.5 35.7 57.2 85.8 42.3 41.6 30.6 40.9 58.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 23.1 33.3 54.4 92.9 49.9 44.5 20.0 33.4 56.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 34.3 47.7 58.4 90.6 47.1 43.9 31.3 50.9 61.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 42.3 57.2 68.7 91.4 50.1 45.0 45.2 57.0 72.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 33.9 46.9 61.2 86.2 47.4 42.8 33.5 47.6 58.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 36.1 44.7 76.5 99.6 50.5 49.4 38.0 44.5 64.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 25.2 39.4 53.0 90.1 49.4 44.6 28.4 39.9 50.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 71.7 91.8 75.4 98.8 55.7 49.8 77.6 86.8 97.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 35.4 47.6 62.1 85.2 45.1 42.3 29.7 49.6 58.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 39.0 47.7 75.4 93.4 50.7 46.6 41.0 47.7 67.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 31.4 39.3 61.9 90.4 50.0 45.0 35.3 39.3 56.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 38.5 48.9 64.2 95.9 53.0 48.4 40.4 47.0 53.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 49.4 43.4 68.7 94.1 49.0 47.1 30.3 43.6 57.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 39.4 48.7 75.6 89.8 47.2 44.4 41.7 51.3 67.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 27.8 43.5 66.0 96.2 54.4 48.3 30.7 42.1 51.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 34.5 44.6 63.5 90.6 48.1 44.7 37.9 48.1 60.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.4 37.9 53.6 92.0 50.6 45.1 26.3 37.8 56.8 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 45.5 67.0 83.0 97.1 52.8 48.8 51.0 65.9 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 33.3 48.1 55.5 93.0 49.0 44.5 32.5 49.3 66.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 40.2 62.8 85.1 103.0 57.6 52.1 45.4 58.2 67.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 30.0 42.4 59.8 86.6 47.0 43.1 31.8 43.7 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 27.1 34.3 56.0 92.4 49.9 45.3 26.1 34.3 51.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 26.5 34.8 57.1 90.5 46.5 43.8 23.3 36.1 59.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 41.7 61.0 73.2 92.7 49.7 46.3 46.5 61.4 74.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 29.5 41.9 63.4 84.3 43.0 41.1 36.5 47.9 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 47.3 46.4 68.3 101.3 55.3 51.3 40.1 44.3 53.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 34.5 36.0 59.7 83.7 40.9 40.2 34.1 46.3 59.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 28.3 37.4 67.8 93.9 51.4 46.4 30.0 36.8 54.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 81.7 76.4 84.4 99.5 56.3 50.5 62.9 74.9 80.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 25.9 38.4 55.3 92.1 49.1 44.3 24.1 39.5 55.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------