***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.6 12.0 16.9 98.9 59.3 48.5 5.9 7.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.2 15.3 103.6 63.1 48.0 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.0 12.6 16.4 98.1 60.1 47.3 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.4 17.3 20.3 104.7 63.4 49.5 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.7 17.6 93.6 58.2 47.7 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.4 21.0 102.7 59.9 50.9 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.7 10.1 14.8 100.1 60.4 47.2 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.5 21.0 20.3 103.8 61.0 50.8 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.1 17.4 88.1 55.8 46.7 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.2 15.2 20.3 95.0 57.4 47.9 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.1 12.0 15.8 92.5 58.2 47.6 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.3 17.1 101.8 61.0 50.8 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.9 18.9 100.0 59.8 51.2 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.3 15.6 22.2 98.9 57.6 48.7 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.6 20.5 114.4 66.6 51.7 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.9 12.3 17.1 95.6 58.8 49.5 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.9 14.1 96.3 58.3 46.8 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 15.8 23.5 102.4 59.1 50.4 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.7 12.4 15.8 103.4 63.4 48.1 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 16.0 25.2 118.0 66.8 56.8 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.5 17.0 93.2 57.7 48.1 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.5 13.7 15.5 100.4 61.9 48.0 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.9 14.9 16.3 99.1 61.0 47.6 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.3 15.6 20.6 97.3 57.7 48.1 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.1 10.2 19.4 98.1 58.4 49.4 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.0 10.6 20.0 115.0 68.6 56.7 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.5 12.8 17.8 96.0 57.5 48.2 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.4 20.0 106.8 64.7 50.5 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.3 21.7 24.4 109.3 61.8 52.7 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.2 14.5 16.2 106.9 64.1 48.4 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------