***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.9 14.9 86.7 57.6 45.8 8.3 10.3 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 12.4 15.3 102.1 63.6 49.0 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.4 13.7 15.5 94.0 58.8 47.5 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 21.2 18.2 97.4 61.2 46.7 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.1 14.5 16.8 91.1 58.8 45.2 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.5 17.6 21.9 110.6 60.9 50.3 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.1 14.4 95.5 62.8 48.2 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 11.7 29.5 19.9 104.8 60.4 49.2 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 4.2 14.2 17.2 89.9 58.3 43.8 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.5 17.3 20.5 99.5 59.3 47.4 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.0 12.2 16.7 97.9 59.0 47.3 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.0 16.5 17.5 104.6 61.6 49.2 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.1 13.4 20.9 111.2 61.6 50.7 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.8 17.7 21.1 97.0 58.2 49.9 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.7 16.9 17.6 104.0 65.2 48.8 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.7 14.7 18.9 105.2 59.8 48.5 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.6 15.1 100.1 63.5 49.5 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 18.8 23.4 107.1 60.3 49.9 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 9.3 21.4 15.8 104.4 63.2 49.2 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.5 19.9 23.9 114.4 61.9 51.4 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 7.3 19.0 16.1 88.6 57.8 45.7 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.1 16.5 106.4 63.8 49.9 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.2 13.5 16.2 101.5 61.2 48.8 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.1 19.5 20.5 102.7 60.7 50.3 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.3 14.2 16.9 86.2 54.9 45.3 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.3 16.9 19.0 112.3 60.8 52.0 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.6 13.2 15.5 84.3 54.5 44.9 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.6 16.3 18.9 105.7 63.7 47.9 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.5 21.0 23.8 109.8 62.0 50.6 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.6 15.7 15.0 97.9 61.9 48.2 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------