***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.2 6.6 16.2 87.2 57.1 49.8 1.2 2.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.9 5.3 13.6 80.5 55.9 44.9 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.9 16.1 89.7 59.6 49.0 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.2 10.1 15.7 78.9 52.4 45.7 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.5 16.8 88.4 56.3 49.3 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.5 20.3 100.0 58.0 52.4 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.4 4.6 13.9 81.8 57.5 46.8 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.0 22.7 21.2 112.0 65.7 55.0 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.9 17.2 89.2 55.6 48.9 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 14.2 20.8 104.9 62.3 53.3 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.7 18.8 102.0 61.3 52.8 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.3 13.8 18.3 104.1 63.4 53.8 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.5 18.5 93.2 54.2 50.7 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.8 18.9 85.5 55.6 48.0 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.0 14.4 76.8 54.9 44.7 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.0 16.7 87.0 53.5 48.5 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.0 13.9 82.7 57.8 45.4 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 16.1 21.9 102.0 61.7 53.0 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.0 13.9 81.7 55.3 45.8 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.6 10.6 20.9 98.3 56.9 50.0 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.4 16.6 88.2 55.8 49.0 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.9 13.9 80.3 54.5 44.1 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.6 14.3 81.9 53.7 46.8 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.6 13.1 19.8 95.1 60.4 51.5 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.2 17.5 83.0 52.2 47.5 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.9 17.5 93.2 55.8 49.4 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.6 17.3 86.7 55.4 49.3 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.7 15.2 80.3 54.3 46.5 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.1 19.8 21.8 100.4 60.3 52.1 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.4 14.2 83.5 57.5 46.5 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------