***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 6.5 6.8 9.2 66.8 42.0 39.3 5.8 12.7 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.8 6.0 10.3 85.7 52.4 45.4 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.0 11.0 10.4 78.2 51.6 44.8 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.1 14.5 84.2 55.3 50.2 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.6 7.1 10.0 67.9 46.0 41.6 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.9 8.3 13.3 81.9 52.8 48.8 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.1 6.9 9.8 82.7 49.8 44.3 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.9 14.2 14.1 74.9 48.4 43.6 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.0 7.4 10.3 70.2 48.2 42.0 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 6.7 13.8 73.7 48.3 42.7 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.0 5.3 10.7 67.3 47.8 42.9 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.8 7.4 11.2 71.4 48.7 43.7 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.6 7.7 10.4 67.2 49.0 44.4 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.7 9.5 13.4 75.3 47.6 41.9 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.2 9.6 13.5 89.8 64.4 56.0 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.1 8.3 10.8 71.8 51.4 46.1 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.2 8.2 10.6 89.4 53.2 45.3 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 9.0 14.2 74.1 46.2 41.9 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.6 10.1 81.7 50.8 44.6 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.1 8.9 15.1 80.6 49.4 44.4 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.0 10.2 73.1 50.4 42.8 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.7 10.1 81.9 50.3 43.7 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.0 10.4 78.1 49.6 44.3 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.2 9.1 12.2 72.6 47.5 42.0 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.9 6.1 9.7 65.2 42.1 38.5 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.1 11.8 82.3 49.5 47.2 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 3.4 9.0 62.8 41.1 37.5 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.2 5.9 13.6 82.7 57.2 51.5 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 10.0 14.4 75.9 45.9 42.2 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.2 9.9 79.2 48.9 44.3 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------