***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 23.4 23.8 22.0 2.2 81.9 78.2 21.1 21.8 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 24.0 24.8 22.6 2.8 88.4 82.4 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 23.7 24.5 22.5 2.4 84.8 78.9 21.1 21.9 22.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 15.7 16.1 18.8 1.6 76.4 71.8 13.8 14.3 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 23.2 23.8 20.0 1.7 78.5 72.7 21.0 21.9 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 21.3 21.6 17.8 1.7 78.4 73.2 19.6 20.3 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 23.8 24.5 22.6 2.8 88.9 82.9 20.3 21.5 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 10.9 11.2 18.2 1.7 76.8 71.5 8.6 10.0 10.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 22.6 23.1 20.7 1.9 80.1 74.4 20.6 21.3 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 22.3 22.9 19.3 1.9 79.6 73.6 20.5 21.2 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 22.7 23.4 20.2 1.9 80.1 74.7 20.8 21.1 22.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 21.7 22.3 19.4 1.9 79.4 74.8 19.8 20.5 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 22.7 23.1 19.4 2.0 79.9 76.0 20.8 21.3 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 23.4 23.9 20.6 2.0 80.0 74.2 20.9 21.6 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 23.1 23.6 20.3 1.6 78.3 73.9 20.9 21.6 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 23.3 23.8 19.7 2.1 80.6 76.3 21.4 22.0 22.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 23.2 24.1 22.4 2.9 88.6 83.2 20.0 21.2 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 22.1 22.5 18.7 1.8 78.2 72.7 20.1 20.8 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 23.5 24.3 22.6 2.7 87.7 81.7 20.6 21.1 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 17.0 17.4 16.0 1.5 74.3 69.2 15.2 16.2 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 23.2 23.7 21.5 1.8 79.2 73.8 20.8 21.8 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 23.8 24.7 22.1 2.5 83.9 80.3 20.6 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 23.7 24.7 22.6 2.7 87.2 81.0 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 22.8 23.2 20.5 2.0 79.9 74.5 20.7 21.2 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 23.1 23.6 20.1 1.6 77.0 72.8 20.7 21.7 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 21.9 22.5 18.5 2.0 81.4 76.1 20.1 21.0 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 23.2 23.6 21.1 1.9 79.4 76.1 20.6 21.5 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 23.1 23.6 19.5 1.6 77.2 72.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.7 17.7 1.7 76.7 71.0 15.3 15.9 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 23.9 24.5 22.5 2.6 87.5 81.8 20.5 21.6 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------