***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 25.7 25.3 23.2 1.7 71.3 63.2 23.0 24.5 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 26.2 26.9 23.5 2.1 75.6 66.1 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 26.1 26.4 23.4 1.7 72.0 62.8 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.4 18.6 20.5 1.2 67.6 59.9 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.3 20.8 0.9 61.1 57.1 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.6 23.7 18.4 0.7 58.8 56.1 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.0 23.5 2.2 75.7 66.4 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.2 18.8 0.5 54.4 53.1 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.9 21.1 1.0 61.9 57.3 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.4 19.7 0.7 57.2 54.9 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.8 20.6 0.9 59.6 56.9 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.7 20.0 0.8 58.8 55.8 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.9 19.3 0.8 59.1 56.3 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.0 20.7 0.8 59.2 55.8 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.4 26.3 21.5 1.4 70.2 62.4 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 25.3 25.5 20.2 1.0 61.5 58.2 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 25.3 25.9 23.3 2.2 75.4 66.4 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.8 19.1 0.6 55.1 53.6 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 25.6 26.0 23.4 2.0 73.9 65.0 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.6 16.1 0.1 51.4 49.5 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.1 22.2 1.1 64.8 58.7 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 26.1 26.4 22.8 1.8 71.6 63.6 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 25.8 26.2 23.2 1.8 70.1 63.0 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.3 20.8 0.9 59.7 56.2 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.7 25.3 21.1 1.2 67.5 60.0 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.1 19.4 1.0 64.0 58.4 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 25.5 25.2 22.2 1.5 69.8 62.0 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.7 20.8 1.3 66.7 60.4 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.0 18.6 17.9 0.3 52.6 51.7 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 26.1 26.4 23.5 2.1 75.5 65.7 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------