***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 24.3 25.1 23.0 2.5 78.1 71.4 20.1 22.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 24.2 25.3 23.2 2.9 81.0 73.9 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 24.5 25.3 23.2 2.6 78.1 71.0 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 16.5 17.3 20.5 2.2 75.2 69.6 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 24.5 25.0 20.8 1.9 73.3 67.3 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 22.6 22.7 18.3 1.6 72.7 65.0 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 23.8 24.7 23.2 2.9 80.9 74.2 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.6 18.8 1.6 71.0 64.2 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 23.5 23.9 21.1 2.0 73.1 67.6 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 23.1 23.8 19.7 1.8 71.9 66.0 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.5 23.9 20.6 2.0 73.5 67.3 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 22.8 23.4 20.0 1.9 74.0 66.6 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 24.2 24.7 19.3 2.0 73.6 67.1 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 23.7 23.7 20.6 1.6 70.6 64.0 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 24.2 25.0 21.4 2.3 77.3 71.8 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 24.4 24.7 20.2 2.1 74.1 68.2 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 23.1 24.0 23.0 2.9 80.7 73.8 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 22.4 23.1 19.2 1.7 71.3 65.0 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 23.3 24.0 23.2 2.8 79.7 72.5 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 17.8 17.4 16.2 1.3 66.5 61.7 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 23.9 24.7 22.1 2.1 73.0 68.1 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 23.6 24.3 22.4 2.4 76.3 70.3 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 24.2 24.7 22.9 2.5 77.7 70.0 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 23.4 24.1 20.8 1.9 72.5 66.2 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 23.7 24.5 21.0 2.1 75.0 69.2 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 23.2 23.9 19.3 2.1 76.7 68.1 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 23.8 24.6 22.0 2.3 76.6 70.6 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 24.1 24.6 20.7 2.2 75.9 69.9 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 17.7 18.0 1.5 68.5 63.1 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 24.1 25.0 23.2 2.9 80.7 73.5 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------