***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 23.8 24.4 21.9 2.7 80.1 73.9 21.6 22.4 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 23.8 24.1 22.3 3.1 82.6 76.3 20.6 22.7 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 23.7 24.1 22.1 2.7 78.3 72.5 20.8 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 16.4 17.2 18.8 2.3 76.5 70.6 12.9 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 23.5 24.0 19.8 2.1 74.4 67.9 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 21.6 22.2 17.7 2.0 72.0 66.8 18.9 19.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 23.1 24.3 22.2 3.2 82.6 76.6 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 10.7 10.5 17.7 1.9 69.9 65.5 8.2 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 22.9 23.6 20.6 2.2 75.8 68.4 20.0 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 22.6 22.7 18.9 2.1 71.9 66.7 20.3 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 23.0 23.1 20.0 2.2 73.1 68.0 20.4 21.2 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 22.2 22.6 19.0 2.3 73.9 69.0 19.3 20.6 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 23.0 23.5 19.4 2.4 74.8 69.9 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 22.9 23.3 20.2 2.1 72.3 66.9 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 23.4 24.0 20.6 2.3 78.2 72.3 19.7 22.0 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 23.3 23.9 19.6 2.4 75.1 69.7 20.5 21.6 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 23.0 23.6 21.9 3.1 81.3 75.7 20.2 21.7 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 22.2 22.1 18.1 1.9 70.0 65.6 19.7 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 23.4 23.7 22.2 3.0 81.8 75.4 20.3 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 17.2 16.9 15.5 1.7 66.4 63.8 14.3 15.7 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 23.2 23.7 21.3 2.1 73.8 68.0 21.0 21.8 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 23.7 24.1 21.5 2.7 78.7 72.7 20.9 22.5 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 23.6 24.2 22.2 3.0 80.9 74.3 20.5 22.8 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 22.6 22.8 20.1 2.1 71.7 66.9 20.4 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 23.5 23.5 20.1 2.1 74.1 69.3 20.9 22.2 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 22.5 23.5 18.4 2.5 77.8 72.2 19.3 20.0 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 23.6 24.0 21.1 2.4 77.0 72.1 20.6 21.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 23.3 23.9 19.5 2.3 76.8 70.7 20.2 21.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 17.0 17.0 17.2 1.8 67.7 64.7 14.4 15.8 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 23.6 24.1 22.3 3.0 82.4 76.0 20.5 22.3 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------