***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 21.6 21.5 20.0 1.7 69.6 68.0 18.5 19.8 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 22.1 23.4 21.3 2.8 81.2 78.5 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 22.3 23.1 21.1 2.6 78.4 76.0 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 12.7 12.2 15.6 0.6 56.6 56.0 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 22.2 22.0 18.5 1.9 70.7 69.1 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 20.0 20.8 16.9 2.6 75.9 74.8 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 21.7 23.3 21.2 2.9 83.4 79.6 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 9.8 10.8 17.4 2.7 80.8 77.2 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 21.9 22.0 20.0 2.4 75.1 74.5 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 21.5 23.7 18.7 2.9 82.9 78.6 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 21.8 22.7 19.7 2.6 79.7 76.3 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 21.2 22.4 18.3 2.8 82.4 78.2 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 22.0 23.6 19.5 3.0 87.1 80.6 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 22.5 24.6 20.9 3.2 87.6 81.5 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 20.1 19.7 17.9 0.4 53.8 54.4 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 22.8 23.6 19.0 2.7 80.4 77.1 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 21.7 23.0 21.5 3.4 86.5 82.4 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 21.1 23.9 18.2 3.0 84.4 79.3 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 22.2 23.6 21.5 3.0 83.6 80.1 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 16.8 17.9 16.0 2.9 82.1 78.4 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 21.7 21.3 20.3 1.9 71.0 70.0 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 22.9 24.6 21.5 3.2 86.2 81.9 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 23.2 24.5 21.9 3.4 88.8 83.6 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 21.8 23.9 20.5 3.0 84.8 79.4 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 20.1 20.6 18.3 1.0 63.7 61.0 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 20.9 21.5 16.9 2.4 76.6 75.2 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 21.3 20.4 19.3 1.4 66.9 65.3 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 19.9 20.3 16.9 0.8 58.8 58.4 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 16.1 18.2 17.7 3.1 84.2 79.5 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 22.0 22.8 21.0 2.6 78.9 76.6 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------