***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 10.4 10.9 11.8 1.6 84.4 78.6 9.5 9.9 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 10.7 11.5 11.6 1.7 86.6 80.7 9.5 9.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 12.4 12.9 11.7 1.5 83.9 78.3 10.9 11.4 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.0 8.5 1.0 74.8 69.7 5.6 6.6 6.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 8.8 9.0 9.0 1.1 77.5 72.1 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 7.6 7.8 6.5 1.0 76.3 71.9 6.4 7.0 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 10.6 11.5 11.7 1.8 89.3 81.4 9.2 9.8 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 2.7 2.8 6.4 0.9 74.5 70.1 1.3 2.0 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 9.4 9.8 9.2 1.2 80.3 74.7 8.5 8.7 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 9.5 9.7 7.4 1.0 76.4 71.6 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 9.0 9.3 8.3 1.1 78.5 73.3 8.2 8.5 8.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.8 7.4 1.0 77.2 72.4 6.5 6.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 8.6 8.8 7.1 1.0 76.3 71.6 7.7 8.1 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.5 9.0 1.1 78.9 73.6 9.2 9.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 10.1 10.4 9.7 1.0 78.3 72.6 9.3 9.7 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.4 7.8 1.1 77.7 72.3 9.0 9.3 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 10.8 11.4 11.4 1.7 87.1 80.6 9.7 10.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 7.5 7.7 6.7 1.0 75.1 70.5 6.6 7.0 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 10.5 11.1 11.6 1.7 86.1 80.8 9.3 9.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.2 4.4 4.8 0.9 72.4 69.5 3.2 3.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 9.6 9.9 10.6 1.2 79.2 74.3 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 10.0 10.4 11.2 1.6 85.7 79.4 8.8 9.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 10.2 10.5 11.3 1.7 85.6 80.8 8.9 9.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 9.6 9.9 8.9 1.2 79.2 74.0 8.6 8.9 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 10.2 10.7 10.3 1.3 79.6 73.8 8.9 9.3 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.9 6.7 1.1 77.3 72.6 7.4 7.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 10.8 11.4 11.2 1.5 83.7 77.6 9.2 9.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.2 8.4 8.8 0.9 74.8 69.9 7.2 7.8 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 7.0 7.1 6.0 0.9 74.1 70.1 5.7 6.1 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 10.7 11.5 11.8 1.7 86.9 80.5 9.4 9.8 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------