***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 11.6 11.8 12.2 1.5 75.5 67.3 8.9 10.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.3 12.0 1.6 77.3 69.0 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 13.4 13.8 12.1 1.4 76.1 68.2 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.8 9.3 1.2 72.3 66.0 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 9.9 9.7 9.2 1.0 70.5 63.1 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 8.8 8.8 7.3 1.2 73.6 67.6 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 11.8 12.2 12.1 1.6 77.2 68.9 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 3.4 3.5 6.9 0.9 69.6 63.4 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.6 10.4 9.3 0.9 68.9 62.5 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 10.7 10.6 7.7 0.9 69.3 62.7 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.0 8.5 1.0 71.2 64.4 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 8.5 8.8 7.7 1.0 70.3 64.0 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 9.8 9.6 7.2 0.9 71.0 63.1 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 11.0 11.2 9.3 0.9 68.0 63.3 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.8 10.5 1.3 72.4 67.0 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.6 8.1 1.1 71.8 65.1 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 11.6 12.0 11.8 1.5 75.8 67.8 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.7 6.9 0.8 68.3 61.1 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.1 12.0 1.6 77.8 69.2 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 5.3 5.6 4.8 0.7 66.0 60.2 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.6 10.9 1.1 71.6 64.3 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.4 11.4 1.4 74.1 67.0 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 11.1 11.5 11.7 1.5 77.0 69.1 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.8 9.0 0.9 70.0 63.2 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 11.3 11.1 10.6 1.2 72.0 65.2 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 9.7 10.1 7.0 1.0 70.5 64.2 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 11.8 12.2 11.4 1.3 74.1 66.4 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 9.4 9.7 9.6 1.2 71.8 66.4 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 7.9 7.6 6.3 0.7 67.9 61.1 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 11.5 11.9 12.2 1.6 77.4 69.4 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------