***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.2 11.7 11.4 1.6 72.1 68.5 8.8 10.1 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 10.9 11.5 11.1 1.7 74.9 70.4 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.8 11.3 1.5 73.7 68.9 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 7.1 6.7 8.3 1.2 66.3 65.2 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.1 8.9 8.9 1.3 67.1 65.8 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.6 6.5 1.3 68.9 67.8 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.3 11.2 1.7 76.4 70.5 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.0 2.7 6.1 1.0 66.0 64.1 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.8 9.0 1.4 71.0 67.9 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 9.3 9.4 7.2 1.2 67.7 65.7 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 8.9 9.0 8.2 1.2 69.9 67.1 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.6 7.2 1.2 67.9 65.9 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.4 7.2 1.3 71.1 67.9 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.7 8.7 1.3 71.2 67.8 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.3 9.6 1.2 67.9 66.7 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.5 7.8 1.3 69.7 67.2 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 10.8 10.9 10.8 1.7 75.7 70.0 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 7.2 7.5 6.5 1.2 68.5 65.5 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.2 11.1 1.7 74.5 70.9 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.2 4.6 1.1 63.9 63.3 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 9.5 10.3 10.4 1.3 68.7 67.0 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 9.9 10.0 10.7 1.6 74.0 69.9 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 10.3 10.9 10.9 1.7 76.2 71.7 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.7 8.7 1.3 71.6 67.6 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.5 11.0 10.1 1.3 66.3 65.2 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 8.4 8.5 6.7 1.4 72.2 68.2 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.8 10.9 1.5 69.7 67.1 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 8.0 7.6 8.6 1.2 66.8 65.5 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 6.3 7.3 5.8 1.1 67.2 65.0 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.8 11.3 1.7 75.0 70.0 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------