***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9.6 10.2 10.6 2.1 82.7 82.0 7.7 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 10.2 10.8 10.6 2.4 88.0 86.2 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 11.6 12.4 10.5 2.0 82.6 81.5 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 4.8 4.8 6.2 0.4 57.2 57.1 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 7.5 7.8 8.1 1.4 73.5 72.3 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 6.3 6.2 4.7 1.1 68.5 66.9 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 10.0 11.0 10.7 2.6 90.7 87.4 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 1.5 1.4 5.2 1.3 72.7 71.5 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 8.2 9.5 8.4 1.8 82.4 79.6 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 8.4 8.7 6.4 1.5 76.2 74.8 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 7.8 8.1 7.5 1.4 76.6 74.8 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.6 6.3 1.5 75.3 73.8 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.4 7.8 6.2 1.4 74.9 72.5 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 9.2 9.4 8.0 1.6 79.9 78.3 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 8.8 8.8 7.6 0.7 65.7 63.2 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.4 6.7 1.2 71.4 70.0 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 9.8 10.9 10.4 2.5 91.4 87.1 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 6.3 6.7 5.8 1.4 74.8 73.7 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 9.7 10.3 10.5 2.3 87.3 85.9 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 3.2 3.4 4.3 1.7 77.5 75.6 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 8.3 8.7 9.4 1.6 79.4 76.4 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 8.8 9.5 10.5 2.3 89.0 85.9 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 9.5 10.0 10.3 2.3 87.9 85.8 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 8.4 8.9 8.1 1.7 79.9 78.4 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 9.0 9.5 9.3 1.6 76.9 74.7 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 7.3 7.4 5.6 1.6 74.4 74.0 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 10.6 11.9 10.3 2.2 83.7 82.2 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 6.4 6.5 6.5 0.4 57.7 57.5 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 5.8 6.2 5.0 1.5 73.8 73.3 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 10.3 11.0 10.7 2.3 86.2 85.3 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------