***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 55.1 91.6 47.5 44.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.8 31.2 54.4 90.5 46.0 44.3 20.0 33.4 56.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 35.7 44.8 53.2 89.6 44.9 43.1 31.3 50.9 61.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 42.5 61.4 64.1 95.4 52.6 48.7 45.2 57.0 72.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 34.6 47.8 63.3 95.3 50.7 48.0 33.5 47.6 58.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 36.5 44.0 82.7 95.2 48.7 48.0 38.0 44.5 64.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 44.1 38.0 56.5 93.2 46.1 45.8 28.4 39.9 50.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 91.6 88.8 71.9 98.1 53.0 49.5 77.6 86.8 97.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 36.3 49.0 62.4 95.8 49.4 47.4 29.7 49.6 58.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 38.9 47.7 71.4 96.3 50.8 47.5 41.0 47.7 67.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 31.3 42.7 60.7 96.5 54.6 48.5 35.3 39.3 56.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 50.3 51.6 61.8 99.9 57.0 51.3 40.4 47.0 53.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 49.0 46.1 73.0 98.6 56.6 50.5 30.3 43.6 57.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 39.7 48.5 67.8 93.1 45.8 45.4 41.7 51.3 67.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.1 43.0 59.9 96.2 52.9 49.1 30.7 42.1 51.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 52.4 52.7 65.9 97.3 56.7 49.5 37.9 48.1 60.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.4 36.7 53.9 92.1 47.2 45.5 26.3 37.8 56.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 70.0 66.4 80.3 97.2 52.0 48.6 51.0 65.9 75.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 34.6 43.4 52.7 88.7 45.4 42.9 32.5 49.3 66.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 61.6 61.4 91.8 99.5 53.8 51.5 45.4 58.2 67.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 30.4 43.0 55.7 93.4 48.1 45.5 31.8 43.7 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.3 31.9 51.7 88.5 43.2 43.1 26.1 34.3 51.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.3 34.8 53.3 88.1 45.8 41.8 23.3 36.1 59.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 40.9 59.9 67.6 93.8 48.8 45.6 46.5 61.4 74.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 34.3 48.4 66.4 93.8 50.3 46.1 36.5 47.9 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 47.1 47.5 69.7 103.3 58.7 54.2 40.1 44.3 53.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 37.2 44.9 64.5 93.7 47.6 45.6 34.1 46.3 59.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.7 38.5 61.7 95.5 52.3 48.6 30.0 36.8 54.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 81.4 76.1 83.6 98.9 54.2 50.5 62.9 74.9 80.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 27.3 36.6 54.4 90.0 44.9 43.9 24.1 39.5 55.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------