***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.4 78.1 48.7 41.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.0 10.9 72.8 47.6 42.3 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.4 10.9 75.7 45.7 41.8 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.4 12.7 13.0 86.6 52.7 46.9 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.3 12.7 84.7 51.8 45.7 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.0 18.4 95.1 58.8 50.8 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.0 11.7 78.5 52.5 44.6 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.6 17.2 14.7 89.2 52.6 47.3 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.4 12.7 84.9 50.4 45.4 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.4 12.9 14.5 86.6 49.1 46.0 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.0 11.8 84.1 51.8 46.4 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.1 12.4 88.2 55.2 47.8 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.3 15.2 93.0 57.6 49.9 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.0 14.2 83.0 52.0 45.8 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.9 12.3 92.8 58.7 48.9 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.9 13.1 88.0 54.8 48.6 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.1 11.1 75.4 56.0 44.5 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 14.0 16.3 86.6 52.0 46.3 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.5 6.4 10.5 71.2 45.0 41.5 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.7 11.2 19.2 93.6 58.0 49.0 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.4 8.6 11.0 79.1 50.2 43.0 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.5 12.0 10.5 71.6 51.1 42.6 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.6 9.6 10.7 72.9 45.8 41.8 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.7 13.3 13.6 81.3 47.5 44.6 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.2 5.9 14.2 84.9 49.5 44.2 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.4 14.0 93.6 61.2 49.2 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.9 10.5 14.0 83.9 51.2 43.7 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.4 12.4 88.3 54.7 47.9 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.1 19.2 17.3 90.9 55.5 48.5 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.4 10.9 11.1 74.2 47.8 42.2 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------