***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.8 89.6 53.1 43.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.8 17.5 95.3 59.2 48.2 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.3 12.2 17.7 94.2 55.0 45.2 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.0 17.9 21.3 99.8 55.8 47.2 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.9 13.7 21.2 102.3 56.9 48.1 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.9 15.8 26.7 102.9 57.1 51.2 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.0 17.8 94.3 56.8 47.2 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 26.3 30.0 22.7 108.4 60.8 54.0 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.3 14.1 20.9 101.6 58.2 47.7 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 17.3 23.5 105.7 60.1 51.5 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.3 19.5 107.1 61.2 52.0 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.5 18.8 110.4 61.7 54.4 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.6 22.6 107.2 58.6 52.8 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.3 19.1 22.3 102.0 62.2 50.1 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.4 12.2 19.4 100.4 59.8 47.8 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.2 14.9 20.8 107.4 60.5 51.9 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.0 16.6 92.5 54.8 48.0 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.1 19.9 27.2 110.3 62.1 54.5 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.2 19.0 17.3 96.4 59.3 48.2 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.1 29.9 107.8 57.0 54.9 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.1 18.1 18.4 95.0 54.7 44.9 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.8 9.1 16.0 92.9 56.1 48.1 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.9 11.0 17.7 97.4 57.8 47.6 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.6 19.5 22.8 105.0 60.9 51.0 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.6 12.9 21.7 92.5 52.3 44.2 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.9 20.1 106.2 58.7 54.3 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.6 13.1 20.6 90.4 52.7 43.6 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.2 14.5 20.1 101.6 58.7 47.9 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.2 20.3 27.8 109.4 60.2 54.6 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.8 11.5 17.8 94.3 58.7 46.6 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------