***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.7 122.4 75.5 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.6 16.4 110.3 64.1 52.2 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.1 9.3 14.4 104.2 67.6 49.7 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.6 16.3 18.7 117.4 72.9 50.3 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.9 17.7 112.7 71.9 49.3 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.5 23.1 99.4 59.1 48.3 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.2 17.5 118.9 67.5 54.7 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.7 20.2 17.2 97.3 59.4 46.5 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.8 12.7 17.0 113.5 71.5 49.6 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.9 14.4 17.5 100.3 62.8 46.9 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.2 16.5 108.8 66.0 47.9 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.1 14.3 15.7 103.7 64.5 47.8 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.4 12.4 20.2 103.7 63.6 48.7 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.0 16.3 89.7 61.1 46.6 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.6 11.1 18.2 118.0 69.0 50.4 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.2 18.6 107.4 66.3 48.3 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.0 17.3 121.4 67.9 56.1 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 16.0 18.2 89.7 59.9 45.1 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.9 15.1 102.7 63.7 50.4 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 10.1 21.8 90.7 53.4 45.8 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.2 9.8 16.0 121.2 74.1 51.4 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.0 15.7 108.6 65.1 53.5 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.2 10.5 14.1 94.4 63.0 48.8 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.4 13.3 15.8 90.8 62.4 45.7 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.3 12.1 20.2 124.9 76.8 52.5 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.4 10.1 18.9 106.8 65.5 50.9 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.6 10.6 19.7 125.4 75.3 53.6 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.4 18.0 113.3 68.7 49.4 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.0 19.2 19.1 89.7 57.1 45.0 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.1 6.1 15.9 107.6 65.9 51.2 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------