***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.3 76.6 46.5 46.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.6 9.5 80.5 50.7 46.6 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.4 10.2 10.2 82.6 49.6 46.9 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 7.3 12.7 11.2 74.6 51.0 43.1 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.6 11.8 78.2 51.0 43.3 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.5 14.6 79.1 54.2 44.0 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.9 6.6 9.4 78.2 47.4 46.6 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.1 17.2 95.6 55.6 50.3 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.2 11.9 80.8 51.1 43.3 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.7 7.5 15.9 89.8 54.1 47.6 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.4 6.0 12.9 83.3 52.2 46.4 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.2 14.8 95.3 55.5 50.5 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.9 15.0 87.8 57.2 46.8 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.4 14.4 14.9 95.5 57.2 49.4 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.3 4.7 10.0 70.2 51.7 42.0 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.6 13.3 83.0 52.7 45.8 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.2 8.1 8.9 76.8 48.7 44.3 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 12.6 18.6 98.7 57.2 51.5 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.6 9.8 81.7 50.2 46.2 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.6 21.0 104.4 60.0 53.5 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.1 8.6 10.3 78.3 49.1 43.8 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.6 9.4 78.4 44.7 42.2 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.9 10.7 84.9 48.3 46.6 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.1 15.3 95.0 58.3 49.7 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.1 6.1 10.3 71.4 43.1 41.9 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.1 16.7 104.9 59.2 52.2 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.5 7.0 10.1 74.7 46.9 44.6 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.2 11.2 75.3 52.2 43.3 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.3 19.4 103.1 60.1 53.2 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.2 9.6 81.1 48.8 46.9 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------