***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.2 -0.5 42.3 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 22.6 24.3 21.1 -0.4 42.7 47.1 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.0 21.3 -0.4 45.2 47.5 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 15.0 16.8 19.4 -0.8 42.7 43.7 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.7 24.2 19.6 -0.7 45.4 44.6 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 20.5 22.2 17.2 -1.0 41.2 40.3 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 21.8 23.6 20.9 -0.5 41.6 45.9 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.3 12.7 17.9 -0.8 44.9 43.8 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.3 23.7 20.0 -0.7 45.2 45.2 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.0 23.1 18.7 -0.8 45.4 44.4 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.2 23.9 19.0 -0.8 45.7 44.2 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.8 23.2 18.7 -0.8 44.7 43.6 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 21.8 23.9 18.1 -0.9 42.3 42.3 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.1 23.6 19.9 -0.5 44.8 46.3 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.2 19.7 -0.8 39.4 42.3 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.7 18.7 -0.8 43.1 42.9 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.3 23.0 20.8 -0.5 41.5 46.1 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.8 18.1 -0.7 44.4 44.9 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 21.8 23.4 21.3 -0.3 44.5 48.0 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.0 18.1 15.8 -0.8 43.3 44.1 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.5 20.8 -0.6 45.0 46.2 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 22.4 24.0 20.9 -0.4 43.3 47.0 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 22.4 24.1 21.2 -0.3 45.6 48.2 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.9 23.4 19.8 -0.6 44.6 46.2 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.4 19.7 -0.6 41.6 45.6 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.8 17.9 -0.9 42.1 42.3 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.2 23.8 20.4 -0.6 40.4 46.1 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 22.1 23.5 19.5 -0.8 41.2 42.5 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.4 17.5 17.1 -0.8 42.9 44.9 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.4 21.2 -0.4 43.1 47.2 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------