***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 20.8 0.1 55.2 52.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.0 22.9 20.7 0.4 58.8 54.8 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.7 23.4 20.8 0.2 55.7 53.0 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.9 18.8 -0.3 49.9 47.8 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.3 19.0 -0.3 51.2 48.3 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.4 16.8 -0.5 48.0 46.1 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.4 20.7 0.3 59.1 54.3 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.3 17.3 -0.5 48.8 46.8 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.9 19.4 -0.2 52.2 49.5 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.2 18.1 -0.4 50.6 48.1 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.1 18.5 -0.4 50.0 47.7 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.5 18.1 -0.5 47.8 46.5 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.4 17.6 -0.5 47.3 46.1 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.7 19.3 0.0 55.3 51.7 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.6 19.1 -0.3 49.3 47.6 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.7 21.8 18.1 -0.5 48.5 46.8 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.0 20.5 0.4 59.1 55.2 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.6 17.4 -0.4 51.2 48.2 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.5 20.8 0.4 58.5 54.8 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.1 15.1 -0.5 48.6 47.0 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.3 22.2 20.2 -0.1 53.0 50.6 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.8 20.5 0.4 59.1 55.2 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.9 20.7 0.3 57.6 54.1 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.8 19.2 -0.1 53.1 50.6 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.1 19.2 -0.1 53.7 50.5 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.9 20.8 17.3 -0.6 46.7 45.2 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.4 20.0 0.1 54.6 52.1 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.8 21.5 19.0 -0.4 48.0 47.1 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.6 16.4 -0.4 51.3 48.0 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.7 20.9 0.3 58.8 54.3 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------