***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 20.0 1.2 65.1 63.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.9 19.8 1.0 62.9 60.5 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 21.9 20.9 20.1 1.2 68.1 63.1 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.1 17.5 1.5 70.7 66.8 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 22.1 21.7 18.5 1.3 69.3 65.5 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 20.1 20.8 16.1 1.5 75.1 69.9 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 20.0 19.8 19.6 0.9 57.7 58.9 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 9.4 8.9 16.3 1.0 68.3 62.5 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 21.6 20.9 19.4 1.3 68.8 65.2 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 21.0 21.4 17.6 1.2 68.6 63.7 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 21.4 22.0 18.1 1.2 69.5 64.9 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 20.6 21.0 17.1 1.1 67.7 62.8 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 21.4 22.1 17.2 1.1 66.8 64.1 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.4 20.4 19.0 0.9 61.5 59.8 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 21.5 21.1 18.9 1.4 69.8 66.8 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 22.4 22.6 17.8 1.3 69.5 66.0 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 19.8 19.8 19.4 0.8 56.5 57.5 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 20.5 20.4 16.9 1.0 65.8 61.1 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 21.4 20.2 20.0 1.1 65.3 61.7 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.3 14.5 0.9 64.7 60.1 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 21.8 20.8 20.1 1.3 68.9 64.5 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 20.2 20.4 19.5 0.8 57.1 58.1 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 22.2 21.0 20.0 1.1 66.2 62.4 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 21.2 20.6 18.8 1.0 65.2 61.3 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 21.6 20.7 18.8 1.3 65.5 63.9 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 19.4 20.8 16.0 0.9 65.1 61.7 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 21.4 20.3 19.4 1.1 62.8 62.1 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 21.7 22.0 18.1 1.5 70.8 67.6 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.5 15.3 16.1 1.0 64.7 60.2 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 21.5 20.3 20.0 1.1 63.8 61.6 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------