***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 0.4 66.3 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.3 10.7 0.4 65.6 59.4 9.5 9.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.1 10.7 0.4 65.2 60.5 10.9 11.4 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.9 8.5 0.3 60.5 57.1 5.6 6.6 6.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.5 8.6 0.3 63.4 58.5 7.6 8.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.5 6.6 0.4 67.2 60.0 6.4 7.0 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.5 10.2 10.7 0.4 65.4 58.9 9.2 9.8 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.6 6.8 0.5 66.0 61.5 1.3 2.0 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.4 9.0 0.3 63.9 58.7 8.5 8.7 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.6 7.6 0.4 66.4 61.0 8.5 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.9 8.1 0.4 64.1 59.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.2 7.5 0.4 63.8 59.8 6.5 6.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.5 6.9 0.3 66.1 58.3 7.7 8.1 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.8 9.1 0.4 64.4 60.8 9.2 9.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.9 9.2 0.2 61.2 57.2 9.3 9.7 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.9 7.7 0.4 64.4 60.1 9.0 9.3 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.3 10.5 0.3 60.9 58.0 9.7 10.0 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.6 6.9 0.5 67.8 61.7 6.6 7.0 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 10.4 10.0 10.7 0.4 65.4 60.0 9.3 9.6 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 4.2 4.2 5.1 0.5 67.8 61.2 3.2 3.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.3 10.1 0.4 63.9 59.3 8.5 8.9 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.6 10.4 0.3 60.1 58.4 8.8 9.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 9.9 9.8 10.4 0.5 65.7 60.8 8.9 9.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 9.5 9.5 8.8 0.5 67.9 61.2 8.6 8.9 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.5 9.5 0.3 58.8 57.8 8.9 9.3 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.5 6.9 0.2 63.0 57.6 7.4 7.9 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.0 10.2 0.3 61.8 58.2 9.2 9.6 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.0 8.7 0.3 61.4 58.2 7.2 7.8 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.8 6.3 0.5 68.6 62.6 5.7 6.1 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.2 10.8 0.4 66.2 59.7 9.4 9.8 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------