***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 -0.5 41.2 42.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 10.6 11.3 11.5 -0.5 40.3 43.1 10.0 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 11.9 13.3 11.4 -0.4 44.2 44.7 12.2 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.4 9.4 -0.5 40.6 42.7 7.1 8.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 8.8 9.1 9.3 -0.5 39.1 43.4 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 7.8 8.5 7.5 -0.4 41.6 44.7 8.1 9.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.9 11.4 -0.5 40.0 42.0 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.8 7.5 -0.3 41.6 45.4 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 9.8 10.3 9.7 -0.4 39.1 43.9 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 9.7 10.6 8.2 -0.3 41.0 45.0 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 9.6 9.9 8.8 -0.4 41.0 44.5 9.5 10.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 7.6 8.3 8.3 -0.3 39.4 44.6 7.5 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 9.0 9.9 7.8 -0.4 39.7 43.5 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.4 9.8 -0.2 47.5 46.6 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.9 10.0 -0.4 40.8 43.6 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.5 8.5 -0.4 40.4 44.4 10.0 11.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.1 11.3 -0.5 40.1 42.3 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 8.0 8.4 7.6 -0.2 43.1 46.1 8.1 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.4 11.2 11.4 -0.4 41.9 44.4 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.6 5.8 -0.2 43.8 46.7 4.2 5.2 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 9.7 10.2 10.7 -0.5 41.3 43.2 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.0 11.2 -0.4 39.7 43.0 9.9 10.6 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.7 11.2 -0.2 46.4 46.1 10.3 11.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.4 9.5 -0.2 45.6 46.4 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 9.9 10.2 10.0 -0.6 38.8 41.3 10.0 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 8.6 8.8 7.8 -0.5 36.0 41.4 8.5 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 10.1 11.3 10.8 -0.6 40.1 41.7 11.0 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.0 9.6 -0.4 42.3 44.1 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.8 8.0 6.9 -0.2 43.3 47.2 7.4 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 10.3 11.2 11.5 -0.5 40.9 43.3 10.5 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------