***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 11.4 0.3 57.7 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.3 11.3 0.5 63.4 58.3 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.0 11.2 0.5 63.2 58.3 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.4 6.7 9.0 0.0 49.5 50.2 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 9.0 0.1 53.3 52.3 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.3 7.9 7.1 0.0 57.4 51.6 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.8 11.3 0.5 62.1 57.6 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.6 7.3 0.2 58.2 54.8 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.9 9.5 0.2 55.6 54.3 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.9 8.0 0.3 59.3 55.7 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.0 9.4 8.5 0.1 53.0 53.6 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.6 7.9 0.1 54.6 52.8 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.9 7.3 -0.1 53.1 50.3 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.0 9.6 0.5 62.8 58.5 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.5 9.5 -0.1 51.9 50.0 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.5 8.0 0.0 52.0 51.5 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.4 11.1 0.5 61.3 57.7 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.6 7.4 0.4 62.4 57.6 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.1 11.3 0.6 64.2 59.0 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.9 5.6 0.3 58.5 54.8 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.0 10.5 0.3 56.3 54.6 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.6 11.1 0.5 60.7 58.3 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.9 11.0 0.6 65.1 59.6 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.3 9.4 0.5 63.2 58.8 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.1 9.8 0.1 52.8 51.9 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.0 7.3 -0.2 43.5 47.4 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.7 10.6 0.2 56.3 53.8 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.5 9.2 0.0 50.8 50.7 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.6 6.8 0.4 63.3 57.7 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.0 11.4 0.5 62.7 58.1 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------