***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 0.7 59.1 61.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.9 10.6 0.5 54.7 58.3 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.2 10.6 0.6 59.0 60.4 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.4 8.5 0.6 59.7 61.2 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 9.1 8.5 8.5 0.6 60.1 61.7 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 7.4 7.7 6.7 0.8 72.7 65.8 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.5 10.7 0.5 56.9 59.2 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 3.0 2.6 6.9 0.8 65.7 63.9 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.7 9.1 0.7 61.2 61.7 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.4 7.6 0.7 62.9 63.0 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.5 8.0 0.7 62.5 62.8 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.6 7.6 0.8 65.5 63.6 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.3 7.0 0.7 67.3 63.8 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.3 8.9 0.4 55.9 58.5 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.1 9.0 0.6 62.7 61.3 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.2 7.7 0.7 67.1 63.8 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.5 10.4 0.4 54.7 57.1 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.9 7.0 0.7 62.7 62.1 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.3 10.5 0.4 54.6 58.4 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.5 5.3 0.7 66.1 62.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 9.5 9.0 10.1 0.7 61.4 61.4 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.5 10.2 0.3 52.6 56.3 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.2 10.0 10.2 0.4 56.5 58.6 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.0 8.7 0.5 58.8 60.2 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.4 9.4 0.6 59.0 61.0 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 8.4 8.4 7.0 0.7 68.8 64.5 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.6 10.6 10.2 0.7 57.7 61.2 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.1 7.4 8.7 0.6 63.4 62.2 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.9 6.3 0.6 60.9 61.5 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 10.7 0.5 56.4 59.2 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------