***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 9.8 1.1 70.9 67.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 9.5 9.0 9.5 1.0 64.6 65.4 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 11.1 10.9 9.5 1.0 68.5 67.3 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 6.0 5.7 7.2 1.0 69.7 67.7 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.8 7.5 1.0 73.8 69.6 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.8 5.2 1.0 74.8 70.6 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 9.2 9.3 9.4 0.9 65.6 66.1 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 1.6 1.6 5.6 1.1 75.4 70.3 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 8.1 7.9 7.8 0.9 73.3 67.8 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 8.3 8.5 6.4 1.0 74.6 69.3 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 7.7 8.1 6.9 1.0 73.4 69.6 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 6.2 6.5 6.1 0.9 72.9 68.9 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.4 5.7 0.9 69.8 69.3 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 9.0 9.0 8.2 1.0 72.0 67.8 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 8.8 9.0 8.1 0.9 67.4 66.8 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.5 6.5 1.0 73.7 71.0 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 8.5 9.2 9.3 0.9 62.3 64.1 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 6.3 6.5 5.7 1.0 72.0 69.2 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 9.1 9.2 9.5 1.0 65.2 65.7 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 3.1 3.3 3.6 1.1 75.5 70.8 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.6 9.2 1.1 73.8 69.6 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 8.4 8.5 9.3 0.9 65.1 65.0 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.6 9.3 1.0 66.9 66.3 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 8.2 8.2 7.8 1.0 72.2 68.5 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 8.9 9.3 8.8 1.2 74.5 70.0 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.3 5.4 1.0 70.1 68.7 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 10.0 9.8 9.2 1.1 71.3 68.4 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.9 7.5 1.0 69.0 67.7 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 5.8 6.2 5.1 1.1 75.3 71.7 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.8 9.6 1.0 65.0 66.2 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------