***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 60.2 70.9 69.7 134.3 76.9 69.6 31.1 41.1 62.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 59.1 66.4 72.6 130.3 77.6 68.5 20.8 36.2 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 65.4 69.2 68.8 128.8 73.1 67.6 30.3 51.3 61.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 75.8 78.5 85.6 130.7 70.9 66.9 44.6 57.0 69.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 59.8 61.5 81.0 126.4 70.9 65.1 33.5 47.1 58.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 49.5 66.3 100.8 120.1 67.3 64.5 38.6 43.0 64.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 59.0 64.5 72.8 129.2 78.1 68.6 28.0 42.9 53.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 97.0 99.3 88.4 123.8 72.5 65.9 77.5 87.8 97.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 62.8 61.6 79.7 127.3 73.7 65.7 30.7 48.9 59.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 70.8 75.6 90.4 123.9 73.1 65.5 40.6 46.8 63.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 55.7 61.1 78.4 130.7 74.7 67.4 35.3 41.9 55.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 56.0 57.7 74.1 124.4 70.4 64.7 43.7 48.2 55.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 48.8 51.2 84.1 116.7 63.8 61.6 34.1 44.7 52.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 57.8 71.5 81.5 116.8 69.1 62.1 40.5 51.0 68.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 56.5 62.8 86.7 140.9 75.7 70.3 29.7 43.1 53.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 58.4 62.2 83.7 127.5 72.3 66.2 38.0 48.0 58.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 60.1 66.3 70.4 126.2 75.9 65.4 27.3 38.8 62.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 73.9 79.4 97.4 119.1 70.7 64.7 48.9 71.4 77.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 67.5 72.6 70.9 129.5 77.1 67.7 31.1 54.1 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 62.7 70.9 104.4 117.9 69.2 64.4 46.7 59.2 70.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 54.4 58.4 71.6 131.4 73.0 67.9 28.3 41.6 51.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 54.8 56.3 68.4 124.5 73.5 64.3 24.0 41.9 53.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 58.7 69.5 70.1 125.6 74.0 65.6 25.9 36.5 62.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 62.8 74.7 83.6 120.1 69.3 64.3 45.1 59.2 73.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 63.4 68.3 84.4 128.4 75.4 66.8 36.4 53.3 64.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 47.3 52.2 74.2 114.0 61.8 61.9 40.3 44.2 55.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 68.5 79.2 81.3 131.4 77.9 68.3 30.2 46.6 59.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 55.1 58.7 85.8 134.6 72.8 67.9 31.3 39.8 54.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 91.6 94.1 98.2 118.9 71.1 65.5 62.1 73.3 87.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 62.8 69.4 71.8 131.4 77.2 69.2 21.7 42.4 58.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------