***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.3 16.7 14.0 119.7 68.9 57.4 4.4 11.2 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.9 13.1 107.4 62.1 49.2 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.3 13.4 114.6 64.7 54.4 4.5 9.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.4 24.1 17.7 123.2 71.2 57.6 5.8 10.9 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.7 16.7 121.4 69.2 55.9 4.0 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.2 13.3 23.9 132.7 71.7 58.1 6.3 9.6 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.5 10.0 13.8 111.5 62.6 50.3 2.9 4.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 21.7 23.8 19.9 126.2 69.3 56.2 11.2 19.6 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.9 16.4 121.9 69.6 56.8 5.1 9.4 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.7 19.0 20.1 125.8 68.5 56.9 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 11.8 16.2 130.2 69.7 56.6 3.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.7 15.7 124.6 69.7 55.0 5.3 7.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.5 9.7 18.3 120.9 65.0 55.4 3.6 6.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.1 18.1 17.5 109.5 62.3 51.5 5.4 15.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 9.1 10.3 18.5 142.7 74.9 60.8 1.5 4.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 13.0 17.7 129.6 70.9 56.4 6.8 9.0 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.9 7.4 12.9 103.2 57.2 47.2 2.7 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.7 20.6 23.1 128.0 69.4 57.0 9.2 13.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.3 12.6 105.0 62.3 48.8 3.9 9.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.6 25.0 124.1 69.2 56.0 5.9 8.6 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.4 16.7 14.5 121.6 71.0 58.6 1.1 9.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.0 11.7 11.8 91.7 54.3 44.7 4.1 9.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.3 15.5 13.0 105.6 64.3 49.4 3.9 9.5 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.6 19.6 18.5 119.9 65.8 54.7 7.0 12.4 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.5 16.1 18.1 120.4 68.4 58.0 3.2 6.0 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.6 15.6 113.9 64.0 55.1 4.0 6.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.9 16.8 116.9 66.9 56.2 3.6 9.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.0 12.5 18.0 131.1 71.9 58.4 3.4 6.6 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 20.5 23.3 125.8 68.0 55.9 10.4 17.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.6 15.1 13.2 111.6 64.6 51.6 4.6 8.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------