***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 17.1 14.9 111.7 65.6 53.5 7.1 10.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.3 17.4 104.9 65.6 52.1 3.4 9.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.5 14.7 98.8 60.5 51.4 3.6 12.0 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.9 22.6 19.4 109.8 66.4 51.0 9.8 17.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.5 15.9 18.9 109.4 67.0 51.6 5.5 10.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.5 18.2 25.5 102.8 59.1 51.5 7.5 14.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.1 12.4 17.3 104.9 63.1 51.2 4.9 8.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.8 33.0 20.8 101.9 61.8 51.1 17.5 24.8 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.8 18.4 105.2 65.9 50.8 4.3 9.0 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.6 17.5 20.8 98.8 62.7 50.1 10.2 13.0 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.9 16.1 17.7 110.4 67.5 52.5 4.2 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.0 17.1 17.3 109.8 66.4 52.7 8.6 14.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.9 13.0 20.7 106.1 60.6 52.2 6.8 10.1 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.9 14.0 18.7 89.1 54.6 47.4 7.2 13.2 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 17.3 18.8 109.7 66.4 51.3 5.8 9.5 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.3 15.2 19.6 112.9 66.1 52.6 5.3 12.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 6.1 15.3 17.2 105.1 66.4 50.4 5.2 12.3 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.6 16.8 22.3 90.5 58.5 48.9 9.0 11.9 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.0 24.2 16.7 102.9 65.0 51.8 7.0 17.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.5 17.1 26.3 98.0 56.4 50.6 8.4 16.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.0 20.3 15.5 106.6 66.4 51.7 5.7 13.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.7 16.3 101.2 63.4 48.2 6.2 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.7 17.5 16.1 98.8 61.3 50.3 7.4 10.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 8.2 19.2 18.3 89.4 57.1 48.3 5.9 17.3 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.8 18.6 108.8 62.7 51.3 8.2 13.5 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 15.5 16.2 18.0 100.5 57.7 50.0 5.9 13.9 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.6 17.6 17.7 109.3 63.4 52.2 5.0 12.4 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.5 17.4 19.6 112.4 66.3 51.4 8.6 13.9 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.2 19.3 23.5 95.1 59.0 51.1 8.5 16.0 28.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.8 16.6 104.6 65.0 52.4 2.6 10.5 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------