***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.1 12.3 94.7 59.3 50.9 1.4 2.5 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.0 15.3 110.8 65.0 55.8 1.8 2.5 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.8 11.8 91.6 56.8 48.9 1.4 4.2 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.3 12.8 76.8 50.0 44.4 6.2 8.3 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 13.0 81.6 54.9 47.1 1.7 4.6 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.1 19.9 89.6 51.8 47.8 4.2 6.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.8 15.7 109.8 62.9 54.3 1.2 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.1 14.2 81.9 52.5 45.0 8.4 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.0 13.5 89.7 57.6 50.3 2.9 4.8 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 7.0 15.0 85.6 53.0 47.3 2.9 6.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.8 12.6 83.1 56.8 48.1 2.0 4.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.7 6.6 11.5 77.1 52.7 44.5 3.3 5.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.7 6.6 15.8 81.6 50.0 46.7 4.7 6.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.7 15.2 93.8 56.8 49.6 3.9 6.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.0 14.3 90.5 58.1 50.9 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.6 4.7 15.1 84.8 56.3 48.8 1.5 4.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.6 15.1 108.7 63.1 53.0 1.2 3.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 7.9 18.4 94.5 55.6 51.2 2.7 6.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.3 7.5 14.3 108.4 66.8 55.3 1.6 3.8 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.4 21.8 100.5 60.6 53.5 3.2 7.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.0 11.4 87.8 56.0 47.9 2.0 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.5 6.1 14.2 108.5 62.5 52.8 1.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.5 13.3 102.1 67.3 53.3 2.5 5.8 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.6 5.7 15.2 92.5 56.3 49.8 2.1 5.2 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.6 5.9 15.1 90.4 55.2 49.6 0.6 5.2 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.5 4.9 14.0 86.9 53.6 49.8 2.9 4.4 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.9 15.5 98.2 58.5 52.0 1.0 3.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.8 4.3 13.6 81.7 52.2 46.3 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 16.3 19.2 96.2 59.0 51.8 5.0 11.1 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.0 5.2 14.4 105.9 63.8 55.1 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------