***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 20.9 30.4 28.6 204.8 85.7 80.2 5.8 12.9 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 16.7 28.6 26.8 204.3 90.2 82.0 4.5 7.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 19.2 26.2 28.9 206.8 87.4 80.9 5.7 10.8 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 19.1 28.6 35.8 212.6 86.6 81.8 8.0 11.6 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 15.1 25.6 32.3 190.2 85.5 76.8 4.9 7.3 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.5 18.7 31.4 166.8 80.7 74.2 4.3 7.9 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 15.1 30.0 26.1 196.3 88.2 80.2 4.2 7.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 28.7 43.4 33.5 185.3 87.7 77.6 10.5 14.1 25.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 14.3 20.3 31.3 189.1 85.2 78.0 4.9 9.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 19.0 33.1 34.5 185.9 87.6 77.7 6.1 9.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 15.1 23.1 31.8 196.2 87.4 78.0 4.3 8.4 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 15.9 23.0 29.6 182.4 85.6 76.2 2.3 9.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 14.8 23.4 29.4 161.6 82.1 72.0 2.5 9.6 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 21.9 29.1 30.1 181.4 85.5 78.0 6.7 9.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 20.2 26.4 35.1 224.4 88.0 83.0 2.6 5.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 16.8 23.6 31.3 185.4 84.9 76.6 4.3 9.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 15.3 24.4 25.2 193.5 88.7 80.0 5.4 7.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 25.7 32.3 33.5 170.6 85.4 76.6 6.9 13.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 18.1 29.4 27.3 205.0 89.7 82.0 4.3 6.3 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 18.7 30.4 31.3 157.7 85.3 74.6 6.6 11.0 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 13.7 18.5 30.3 198.8 86.5 79.0 3.6 8.6 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 14.3 21.5 26.0 203.4 87.6 81.8 5.2 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 12.4 22.6 27.6 195.6 87.4 80.6 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 19.4 25.7 31.5 181.9 84.9 78.1 5.7 11.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 21.0 27.3 32.6 193.0 85.7 79.8 5.3 7.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.0 15.7 26.7 152.8 79.7 71.7 2.5 7.7 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 20.7 35.2 31.3 200.5 86.7 80.7 3.5 9.8 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 17.3 20.9 34.6 217.3 87.6 81.8 4.2 7.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 28.5 36.5 32.2 166.0 84.2 76.3 7.5 13.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 18.2 25.3 27.5 207.0 88.8 82.0 4.1 8.7 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------