***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.7 21.2 20.2 -0.3 40.2 44.0 20.9 21.6 22.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.4 20.2 -0.2 44.9 45.1 20.6 21.7 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.2 20.2 -0.3 41.7 43.6 21.0 21.9 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 13.4 13.8 18.1 -0.6 36.7 40.1 13.7 14.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 21.0 21.1 18.5 -0.4 37.5 42.3 20.9 21.7 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.5 19.7 16.6 -0.3 41.6 45.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.1 20.2 -0.2 45.9 45.5 20.2 21.1 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.1 17.0 -0.3 40.3 44.3 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.3 20.9 19.1 -0.4 39.1 42.9 20.5 21.2 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 20.3 20.6 17.8 -0.4 38.8 43.6 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 20.4 20.9 18.2 -0.3 38.9 43.8 20.7 21.0 22.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.6 20.0 17.8 -0.3 40.7 44.0 19.9 20.2 21.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 20.5 20.9 17.5 -0.3 41.0 44.4 20.6 21.2 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 20.7 21.2 18.9 -0.4 40.3 43.3 20.7 21.7 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 20.6 21.0 18.6 -0.6 35.3 38.5 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 21.0 21.5 17.9 -0.3 39.6 44.1 21.3 21.7 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 19.8 20.9 20.0 -0.2 48.3 45.7 19.9 21.0 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 19.7 20.1 17.2 -0.4 38.6 43.8 19.9 20.7 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 20.2 20.9 20.3 -0.2 45.0 45.1 20.5 21.2 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 14.8 15.3 15.0 -0.4 39.9 43.8 15.1 15.9 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.0 19.8 -0.4 38.2 42.1 20.7 21.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 20.3 21.4 20.0 -0.3 44.3 44.7 20.5 21.7 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.4 21.8 20.1 -0.3 44.5 44.8 20.9 21.8 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 20.1 20.8 18.8 -0.4 39.9 43.5 20.5 21.3 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 20.5 20.9 18.7 -0.5 38.3 41.1 20.6 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.0 -0.3 40.3 44.0 20.0 20.8 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 20.3 20.9 19.5 -0.4 39.5 42.9 20.6 21.2 22.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 20.6 20.9 18.4 -0.5 37.5 40.4 20.8 21.5 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.5 16.2 -0.3 40.5 44.1 15.0 15.7 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.9 20.3 -0.2 44.3 44.8 20.3 21.3 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------