***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.6 20.9 0.0 53.9 49.3 19.8 21.9 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.5 20.9 0.1 51.5 49.2 20.1 22.2 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.1 20.9 -0.1 52.3 48.6 20.2 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.9 19.1 -0.2 50.8 47.6 13.0 14.8 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 20.4 22.0 19.2 -0.2 51.4 47.2 20.6 21.9 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 18.6 20.7 17.4 0.0 53.1 49.1 18.6 20.1 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.8 20.9 0.1 50.5 49.7 19.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.0 10.3 17.6 -0.2 49.9 47.0 8.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 19.8 21.3 19.5 -0.2 50.9 47.0 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 20.0 21.3 18.3 -0.2 50.2 46.9 20.1 21.3 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 19.9 21.6 18.7 -0.2 50.0 47.8 20.4 21.6 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.2 20.7 18.4 -0.2 50.5 47.3 18.9 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 19.8 21.8 18.0 -0.2 51.3 47.8 20.2 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.5 21.9 19.2 -0.2 52.4 46.9 20.2 21.8 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.7 22.1 19.4 -0.1 49.8 48.6 20.4 22.1 23.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.3 18.5 -0.1 52.6 48.4 20.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.6 20.7 0.1 50.3 48.9 19.6 21.6 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 19.2 20.5 17.7 -0.2 51.1 46.7 19.4 20.4 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.9 20.8 0.0 52.0 48.7 19.4 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 14.4 15.7 15.5 -0.2 50.5 46.0 14.2 15.7 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 20.1 21.8 20.3 -0.2 52.1 47.6 20.2 21.7 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.3 20.5 0.0 49.9 47.5 20.1 22.3 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.4 20.6 0.0 53.1 48.1 20.2 22.2 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.4 19.2 -0.1 51.9 47.3 19.7 21.4 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.2 19.4 -0.2 51.2 47.8 20.1 22.2 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 19.3 20.6 17.7 -0.2 48.9 47.4 19.4 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.2 22.0 20.2 0.0 51.8 48.9 20.4 21.7 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.1 19.3 -0.2 51.7 48.4 20.4 21.9 23.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.0 15.2 16.6 -0.2 51.3 46.5 14.1 15.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.5 22.1 21.0 0.1 51.8 49.4 19.6 21.7 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------