***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.1 20.8 19.4 -0.9 37.5 41.4 20.6 22.3 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.0 19.4 -0.8 37.0 41.3 20.7 22.2 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.1 21.0 19.6 -0.9 37.7 42.0 20.7 21.6 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.1 13.3 17.6 -1.0 37.2 41.4 12.8 14.5 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.1 18.0 -0.8 42.0 43.5 20.8 21.4 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.6 19.4 16.1 -0.6 45.0 46.3 18.0 19.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 19.8 20.3 19.4 -0.9 35.9 41.3 20.2 21.4 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.8 16.6 -0.6 48.8 46.3 6.8 9.0 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 21.7 20.4 18.5 -0.8 41.2 43.6 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 19.9 20.9 17.4 -0.7 44.8 45.1 19.8 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.0 20.7 17.6 -0.6 46.0 45.7 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 19.0 20.2 17.3 -0.6 48.2 46.4 18.4 20.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 21.6 20.8 16.8 -0.6 45.8 45.6 19.1 21.0 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.5 18.3 -0.9 36.5 42.4 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.1 20.0 17.6 -1.1 31.4 38.9 20.2 22.1 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.6 17.3 -0.7 45.1 45.6 19.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 19.4 20.1 19.3 -0.8 37.4 41.9 19.9 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 19.2 19.8 16.7 -0.7 41.4 44.4 18.8 20.4 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 19.6 20.6 19.5 -0.8 37.3 41.5 20.1 21.4 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.0 14.4 -0.7 41.4 44.7 13.4 15.3 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.0 20.9 19.1 -0.9 39.4 42.6 20.4 21.4 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 19.8 21.0 19.3 -0.8 36.8 41.9 20.7 21.4 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 19.8 20.7 19.4 -0.8 36.7 41.9 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 19.6 20.3 18.2 -0.8 38.5 43.4 19.8 21.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.7 17.8 -1.0 36.0 40.2 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 20.6 19.6 16.5 -0.6 46.3 45.9 18.5 19.8 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 19.9 20.5 18.6 -1.0 36.0 40.3 20.5 21.4 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.6 20.3 17.7 -0.9 36.8 42.2 20.3 22.2 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.3 15.7 -0.8 40.4 44.2 13.7 14.9 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 19.8 20.3 19.5 -0.9 36.2 41.3 20.2 21.8 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------