***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 20.0 19.8 19.0 0.2 51.2 51.9 18.7 19.6 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 20.4 20.0 19.1 0.3 51.8 52.8 18.1 20.0 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.2 19.5 19.0 0.2 46.1 51.1 18.9 19.6 20.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.3 11.5 16.2 -0.1 42.2 46.3 11.1 11.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 20.3 19.5 17.4 0.1 44.3 49.8 19.1 19.8 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 18.6 18.7 15.3 0.4 55.5 54.4 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 19.9 19.5 19.1 0.3 53.5 54.1 17.8 19.4 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.0 7.9 15.7 0.4 53.0 53.5 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 20.0 19.3 18.3 0.2 44.5 50.6 18.1 19.5 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 19.7 19.1 16.7 0.3 49.3 51.7 18.1 19.2 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 19.9 19.3 17.2 0.2 47.8 50.8 18.5 19.4 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 19.0 18.7 16.5 0.3 53.0 52.9 17.8 18.6 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 19.8 19.6 16.7 0.5 54.5 54.6 18.7 19.5 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.5 19.9 18.1 0.1 45.8 50.7 18.6 19.9 21.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 20.0 18.5 17.4 -0.3 39.0 43.3 18.1 19.5 20.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 20.4 20.0 16.9 0.3 49.3 52.0 19.0 20.0 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 19.5 19.7 18.9 0.3 54.4 52.9 17.0 19.0 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 19.3 18.8 16.1 0.3 51.1 52.6 17.6 18.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 20.1 19.6 19.1 0.3 50.0 52.7 18.0 19.6 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.8 14.0 0.5 55.4 55.0 13.1 14.2 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 20.2 19.7 18.9 0.1 42.6 49.4 18.7 19.8 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 20.3 20.0 18.9 0.2 52.4 52.4 18.0 19.8 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 20.5 19.8 19.0 0.2 47.9 52.2 18.4 19.9 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.6 17.8 0.2 47.2 51.0 18.2 19.7 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 19.9 18.8 17.7 0.1 47.1 49.6 18.3 19.4 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 19.1 19.1 15.6 0.4 54.5 54.4 18.1 19.0 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 19.7 19.4 18.5 0.2 51.2 52.0 18.3 19.3 20.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 19.7 19.1 16.8 -0.2 41.7 45.8 18.7 19.2 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.2 15.4 0.5 54.0 54.6 12.8 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 20.0 19.9 19.2 0.3 52.2 53.1 17.9 19.5 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------