***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.9 10.4 0.2 58.1 55.3 9.3 9.4 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.7 10.3 0.2 57.0 54.8 9.3 9.7 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 10.1 0.2 54.5 53.2 10.7 11.1 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 5.6 7.8 -0.1 42.2 46.6 5.5 6.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.3 7.8 7.9 0.0 47.7 50.4 7.4 7.9 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.9 6.0 0.0 47.6 49.4 6.2 7.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.9 10.4 0.3 58.1 55.9 8.9 9.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 1.1 2.0 6.1 0.1 53.5 51.9 1.2 1.8 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.7 8.3 0.1 52.1 52.6 8.2 8.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 8.8 6.8 0.1 54.2 53.2 8.3 8.7 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.4 7.4 0.1 50.4 50.8 7.9 8.4 8.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.3 6.9 6.9 0.1 50.3 51.1 6.4 6.9 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.5 7.9 6.5 0.1 49.7 51.5 7.4 7.9 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.2 8.4 0.1 50.3 51.1 9.0 9.2 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.4 8.4 -0.2 40.6 45.6 9.0 9.6 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.1 7.1 0.0 47.6 49.8 8.8 9.2 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.2 10.2 0.2 58.7 55.2 9.5 9.8 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 6.9 6.1 0.1 52.6 52.4 6.4 6.9 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.5 10.2 0.2 54.9 54.0 9.2 9.4 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.6 4.4 0.1 55.6 51.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.7 9.4 0.1 52.4 51.9 8.3 8.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 10.0 0.2 55.1 53.3 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.1 9.8 0.2 51.9 53.1 8.6 9.0 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.8 8.1 0.1 50.9 51.5 8.3 8.8 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.2 8.8 0.1 50.2 52.1 8.8 9.1 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 7.1 7.7 6.5 0.0 48.1 49.1 7.3 7.7 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.6 9.6 0.2 55.3 54.7 9.0 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 7.1 7.2 8.0 -0.1 41.0 45.7 6.9 7.6 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.3 5.5 0.1 55.3 52.1 5.6 5.9 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.7 10.4 0.2 56.0 54.7 9.2 9.6 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------