***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.8 11.5 -0.3 44.2 46.9 10.5 10.9 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.1 11.6 -0.1 45.8 49.2 10.7 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.4 11.2 -0.3 44.4 47.4 12.0 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.2 9.2 -0.4 43.4 45.9 6.6 8.3 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.7 9.1 -0.4 43.6 45.8 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.0 9.0 7.4 -0.3 45.5 46.2 7.9 9.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.0 11.6 -0.1 45.9 49.1 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.7 2.8 7.2 -0.4 38.7 44.5 2.6 3.7 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.3 9.4 -0.4 43.3 45.9 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 9.8 10.1 7.8 -0.4 40.3 44.9 9.6 11.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 9.5 10.2 8.6 -0.4 41.5 45.5 9.7 10.3 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 7.7 8.2 8.1 -0.4 37.7 44.4 7.9 8.4 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 9.0 9.5 7.7 -0.4 41.0 45.2 9.1 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.0 9.4 -0.3 44.3 46.2 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.8 9.8 -0.3 43.7 46.4 10.5 10.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 10.0 10.8 8.3 -0.3 41.6 45.6 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 11.4 -0.1 47.9 49.5 10.7 11.5 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.1 8.2 7.1 -0.4 37.8 44.3 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.2 11.4 -0.1 46.5 49.0 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.2 4.7 5.4 -0.5 38.2 43.6 4.3 5.0 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.3 10.5 -0.4 43.7 45.4 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.5 11.2 -0.1 47.3 48.7 10.0 10.5 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.0 11.0 -0.1 47.7 48.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.5 9.2 -0.3 42.8 45.9 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.5 9.9 -0.3 43.9 46.1 10.2 10.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.5 7.9 -0.4 39.9 45.0 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.3 10.7 -0.3 44.5 46.8 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.1 9.4 -0.3 43.2 46.0 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.0 7.2 6.5 -0.5 37.1 43.9 7.0 8.1 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.2 11.6 -0.1 45.0 48.6 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------