***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 8.7 10.5 10.9 0.2 57.8 52.5 8.7 10.3 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 10.7 0.1 51.9 51.2 9.1 9.7 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.1 10.5 0.1 51.2 51.3 10.2 12.0 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.3 8.3 -0.2 48.0 46.7 5.4 6.5 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.2 8.3 -0.1 48.5 48.2 6.8 8.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.5 6.7 0.0 53.5 49.9 6.1 7.5 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.3 10.8 0.2 52.8 51.3 9.0 10.1 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.3 6.6 0.0 50.2 49.8 1.3 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.8 8.7 0.1 48.9 50.5 8.2 8.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.1 7.2 0.0 49.0 50.4 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.8 7.8 -0.1 48.7 48.2 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.1 7.4 -0.1 49.7 48.1 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.4 6.9 -0.2 49.0 47.2 7.3 8.5 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.7 8.7 -0.1 44.3 48.6 9.1 9.9 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.1 8.9 -0.2 47.7 46.9 9.4 10.3 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.2 7.5 -0.2 48.9 47.1 8.5 9.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.5 10.6 0.2 52.4 51.5 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.5 6.6 0.0 48.1 50.6 6.4 7.6 8.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.1 10.6 0.1 50.9 51.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.3 5.0 0.1 51.2 50.5 3.2 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.1 9.8 0.1 51.6 51.1 8.3 9.0 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.5 10.4 0.1 49.9 50.5 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.5 10.2 0.0 47.9 50.1 9.0 9.6 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.2 8.5 0.0 47.4 50.3 8.6 9.5 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.4 9.6 9.2 0.0 53.1 50.4 8.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.1 7.1 -0.2 47.5 45.7 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.7 10.4 10.1 0.2 56.4 51.8 8.6 9.9 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.1 7.8 8.6 -0.2 47.4 46.5 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 6.4 6.0 0.0 49.5 50.4 5.8 6.4 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.2 10.8 0.1 51.7 51.2 9.0 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------