***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.8 9.1 9.3 -0.6 37.1 42.0 8.2 10.2 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.0 8.0 9.3 -0.6 36.9 42.4 7.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.0 9.0 -0.7 34.5 40.7 9.8 11.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.4 3.9 6.5 -1.0 26.4 33.9 4.4 6.1 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.3 6.2 6.7 -0.8 31.7 38.9 6.3 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.0 5.6 5.1 -0.6 34.8 40.9 5.4 6.4 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.0 9.3 -0.6 37.1 42.8 7.7 9.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.9 0.5 5.3 -0.5 37.2 43.6 0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.1 7.1 7.2 -0.7 32.0 41.6 7.2 8.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.2 7.5 5.8 -0.5 35.9 43.1 7.3 8.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.3 6.4 -0.5 36.3 42.5 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.7 6.0 -0.5 37.0 43.6 5.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 6.2 6.9 5.6 -0.5 38.2 43.6 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.1 7.4 -0.7 35.6 41.5 8.0 8.7 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 7.9 7.5 6.8 -1.2 22.8 30.5 8.4 9.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.3 6.1 -0.6 36.8 41.9 8.1 9.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 8.9 8.6 9.2 -0.6 36.2 43.0 8.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.6 5.3 -0.5 39.4 43.5 5.3 5.9 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 7.9 8.2 9.2 -0.7 36.9 41.8 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.4 3.6 -0.5 39.8 44.2 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.9 7.1 8.3 -0.7 33.9 40.6 7.0 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.7 7.9 9.1 -0.7 35.7 41.7 7.6 8.9 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.5 7.6 8.8 -0.7 35.7 41.3 7.4 8.9 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.4 7.9 7.1 -0.6 36.1 41.7 7.9 8.5 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 7.4 6.6 7.5 -0.9 30.7 38.1 6.9 9.5 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.8 5.8 -0.5 39.7 43.5 6.5 7.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.7 6.8 8.5 -0.7 33.2 40.5 6.8 10.0 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.0 5.6 6.7 -1.0 24.9 33.4 6.2 7.0 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.4 4.7 -0.5 40.7 44.0 4.8 6.0 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.0 7.8 9.4 -0.6 37.1 42.1 7.8 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------