***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9.0 9.8 10.0 1.6 83.7 77.3 7.5 7.9 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 9.2 10.2 9.7 1.5 84.2 75.5 6.8 7.5 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 10.7 11.3 9.6 1.5 81.2 76.2 9.1 9.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 5.9 5.6 7.0 1.1 71.9 69.0 2.9 4.8 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 7.3 7.6 7.5 1.4 77.5 74.9 4.8 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.4 4.9 0.9 69.5 66.0 4.2 5.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 8.9 10.0 9.7 1.6 85.3 77.2 6.8 7.6 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 1.1 1.3 5.5 1.3 76.0 74.6 -0.5 0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 7.9 8.4 8.0 1.5 80.7 77.7 5.8 6.6 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 8.2 8.6 6.3 1.5 80.3 78.1 5.7 7.1 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 7.8 8.2 6.8 1.2 76.5 72.5 4.9 6.6 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 6.3 6.7 6.1 1.3 76.3 74.0 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 7.4 7.7 5.8 1.3 74.5 72.7 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 8.6 8.9 8.0 1.4 78.4 75.7 6.7 7.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.6 8.1 1.1 72.6 68.9 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 8.9 9.2 6.4 1.2 72.8 70.4 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 9.2 9.7 9.4 1.4 82.9 74.8 7.0 7.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 6.1 6.6 5.5 1.4 80.1 77.6 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 8.9 9.8 9.6 1.4 83.1 74.9 6.5 7.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 2.8 3.0 3.5 1.4 78.9 77.0 1.1 2.1 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 8.3 8.8 9.2 1.4 80.6 75.6 5.6 6.9 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 8.3 8.8 9.4 1.3 80.1 74.1 6.3 7.3 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 8.6 9.1 9.4 1.4 81.1 74.7 5.8 7.5 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 8.0 8.6 7.6 1.3 78.3 75.5 5.6 6.4 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 8.7 9.1 8.7 1.5 82.0 75.5 5.8 7.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.6 5.5 1.2 74.9 71.8 5.4 5.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 9.3 11.2 9.3 1.6 85.2 77.9 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.9 7.3 1.0 69.3 67.0 4.0 5.0 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 5.9 6.2 4.9 1.3 77.6 75.5 3.7 4.6 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 9.3 10.3 9.9 1.5 83.4 76.0 6.7 7.6 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------