***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 27.6 33.0 53.3 88.2 41.9 42.3 27.6 41.1 56.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 21.4 29.1 48.5 88.5 43.2 42.9 18.4 37.3 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 27.8 38.3 53.8 90.3 45.8 42.6 25.6 46.7 60.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 45.2 64.4 70.5 100.6 54.5 49.8 44.8 62.8 69.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 30.5 46.7 65.9 99.0 51.9 48.1 33.6 46.1 58.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 35.3 54.8 81.9 108.0 57.5 52.6 37.9 47.3 65.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 23.2 35.5 47.7 86.5 42.2 42.3 21.9 42.0 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 75.6 94.0 76.1 101.9 55.7 49.5 75.2 89.1 97.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 34.1 45.4 65.7 96.8 50.1 46.4 30.7 45.3 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 35.7 46.4 75.5 97.2 50.6 45.9 39.1 46.1 58.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 30.0 43.1 66.7 101.9 54.6 49.2 33.5 41.7 51.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 39.5 47.5 68.7 106.2 58.3 52.0 44.9 46.3 52.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 32.6 48.2 74.6 105.0 57.0 51.1 35.1 44.3 55.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 36.9 53.8 76.8 97.3 51.9 46.2 39.8 51.8 71.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 27.9 45.9 64.4 101.0 56.6 50.4 31.0 43.7 56.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 33.4 49.3 70.9 105.2 56.9 51.1 37.4 43.6 58.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 29.2 38.3 47.3 87.7 43.3 42.2 26.3 48.7 63.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 50.2 71.4 82.1 100.6 52.4 47.7 42.5 69.9 81.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 32.6 45.0 50.6 90.4 45.5 43.5 34.2 51.3 65.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 64.8 64.7 85.9 105.6 58.6 52.8 46.2 60.7 65.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 28.4 39.6 59.7 93.9 49.3 44.9 28.3 40.0 49.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 27.1 34.6 50.6 89.3 44.3 43.1 22.9 38.8 54.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 25.5 37.8 55.7 95.4 51.4 45.3 23.7 36.5 57.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 38.4 54.1 71.2 97.8 52.2 45.9 44.9 53.3 73.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 31.6 48.8 61.8 89.1 46.4 42.9 36.4 49.8 60.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 48.5 53.4 75.8 113.6 63.5 56.5 39.8 45.2 54.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 28.6 34.1 56.0 86.0 43.0 41.1 28.7 43.7 59.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 30.6 46.0 71.1 104.9 58.3 51.9 29.3 43.1 50.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 82.6 74.4 84.9 103.2 54.8 49.9 59.3 73.3 88.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 22.6 30.3 49.8 88.3 43.2 42.7 19.2 39.3 58.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------