***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.9 14.4 85.9 54.1 43.6 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.1 12.9 80.2 52.2 43.4 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.6 7.0 14.5 87.8 56.1 42.4 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.9 16.7 19.8 100.5 59.0 48.8 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.3 18.5 100.0 58.9 47.9 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.7 22.9 104.5 57.3 48.6 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.1 5.3 13.1 80.9 54.4 43.4 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.7 18.9 20.3 96.8 55.1 48.0 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.7 18.3 96.6 58.0 46.1 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.6 12.7 21.2 96.7 56.1 46.7 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.8 18.1 102.9 59.3 49.0 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.3 18.2 102.6 57.7 49.3 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.9 21.5 106.3 58.4 49.8 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.5 17.9 23.7 102.9 64.4 48.6 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.4 18.8 101.8 61.7 48.0 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.0 11.2 20.3 108.0 61.2 50.5 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.5 5.7 12.4 77.3 49.9 41.7 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.6 16.1 24.0 102.8 59.9 48.8 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.1 14.5 13.5 82.5 53.5 43.6 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 9.3 23.8 103.3 59.7 51.0 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.1 12.2 16.7 96.9 58.2 44.9 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.7 7.8 13.6 79.8 49.3 42.7 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.0 13.3 15.4 91.9 60.3 45.4 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.5 17.7 20.9 102.5 63.8 47.1 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.7 11.9 17.8 94.2 56.2 45.4 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.5 14.5 20.7 112.0 62.9 52.2 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.4 15.5 86.7 54.3 43.8 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.4 7.9 20.5 104.7 62.3 49.2 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.2 22.0 24.7 105.5 61.9 50.4 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.5 13.3 81.6 53.8 43.3 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------