***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.3 11.8 13.6 86.1 51.3 44.2 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.6 13.8 96.7 58.9 47.0 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.6 12.6 14.2 88.1 52.7 44.6 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 9.4 21.1 16.2 92.4 55.4 44.1 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.1 16.5 96.9 56.6 45.8 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.5 12.5 18.0 89.7 53.3 44.6 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.0 11.6 13.0 91.2 57.2 46.7 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.5 27.9 18.4 97.6 57.9 48.2 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.8 11.0 17.1 93.9 54.9 46.0 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.8 12.5 19.2 93.5 55.1 46.6 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.0 12.4 15.1 92.9 54.9 45.4 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.6 14.6 15.4 95.4 56.3 46.6 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 5.7 11.5 16.9 89.0 51.6 44.4 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.9 19.0 22.3 103.8 62.3 46.8 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.2 9.1 14.0 84.8 53.9 42.6 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 5.6 11.8 15.7 89.8 52.3 43.9 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 5.4 15.2 14.1 103.7 65.0 49.4 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 17.1 21.7 98.6 58.1 48.4 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.4 19.9 14.4 97.8 58.3 46.4 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.1 15.8 22.2 105.7 61.7 51.6 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.7 10.6 15.5 90.9 54.9 44.9 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.1 16.2 15.8 108.4 63.8 49.9 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.8 15.7 15.4 99.5 58.3 46.0 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.1 17.8 19.3 95.8 57.4 46.8 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.6 11.9 15.1 84.2 51.8 42.9 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.8 13.6 16.4 94.5 55.5 48.0 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.3 12.1 13.7 82.1 49.4 43.0 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 4.4 13.0 16.0 91.7 54.4 44.0 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 22.8 22.4 102.4 59.4 49.8 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.1 12.1 13.7 92.1 55.1 45.9 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------