***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.5 16.5 111.1 65.1 49.5 2.2 3.6 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.4 4.7 14.6 106.6 60.8 49.0 1.8 2.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.7 15.7 104.1 62.9 48.9 2.2 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.7 20.1 122.0 71.5 57.3 6.2 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.8 18.9 114.5 69.9 55.6 3.0 4.8 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.1 23.3 124.7 66.8 59.2 3.8 8.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.7 6.9 15.3 115.4 64.6 51.4 1.2 4.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.0 18.7 20.5 117.3 65.9 57.1 7.9 9.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.2 8.3 18.4 108.8 67.9 53.0 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.7 19.8 110.6 65.5 53.8 2.9 5.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.2 8.1 19.5 115.8 68.5 55.7 1.2 4.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.9 10.4 19.6 121.3 68.2 58.4 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 12.4 11.9 21.6 126.3 70.8 60.2 3.9 6.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.2 8.8 18.4 99.1 56.5 46.7 5.4 8.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.5 19.4 126.0 72.1 57.9 2.8 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 9.5 10.8 20.4 122.5 71.0 58.4 2.0 4.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.4 4.3 14.5 109.3 64.2 50.1 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.9 20.6 109.4 64.7 52.6 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.0 14.4 103.0 59.7 47.7 1.9 4.3 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.9 21.8 115.0 64.1 56.4 4.0 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.6 17.3 106.7 64.2 52.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.7 5.9 14.2 101.8 62.1 48.2 0.8 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.9 14.7 101.4 57.5 46.0 2.8 5.6 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.9 18.3 103.3 60.9 49.5 3.2 5.8 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.6 19.6 113.4 65.8 52.0 1.9 5.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 9.8 12.0 21.0 126.5 71.2 61.0 2.4 3.8 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.1 18.1 110.7 64.9 50.0 2.4 3.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.0 12.2 20.2 127.9 72.6 59.3 2.5 3.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.8 17.2 21.5 111.8 63.7 53.6 3.3 11.3 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.9 6.0 15.0 108.2 61.1 48.9 0.6 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------