***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.8 14.0 8.8 67.6 49.7 37.7 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 2.6 5.9 7.3 67.5 46.8 33.8 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.2 10.6 9.4 79.9 53.7 39.4 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.1 12.6 14.5 88.1 52.7 44.0 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.6 12.0 82.7 53.7 42.2 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.5 13.1 17.8 117.0 65.7 52.1 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.4 5.8 6.4 55.3 42.9 31.6 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.2 17.3 16.9 98.0 56.8 46.1 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.4 12.0 86.3 54.0 42.3 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.7 12.7 15.3 88.7 53.6 43.0 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.5 14.0 95.2 58.4 45.0 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.7 12.2 15.6 106.2 59.8 49.3 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.2 10.8 14.7 99.2 58.9 48.4 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.2 9.4 12.4 78.3 52.1 38.3 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.6 7.9 12.2 91.1 58.9 47.7 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.4 14.0 14.5 100.1 60.7 47.4 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 2.5 5.7 6.3 57.0 42.2 31.0 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.3 15.9 15.8 91.4 55.5 43.2 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.1 8.4 76.5 51.7 36.2 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.4 12.8 18.1 100.3 57.2 46.5 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.4 8.1 10.3 78.2 53.1 40.0 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 2.3 6.2 7.0 62.7 43.3 32.7 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.2 7.5 10.2 87.9 59.4 39.8 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.8 11.0 12.7 87.3 55.3 41.2 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.0 8.6 9.3 61.1 46.6 37.2 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.8 17.8 123.8 68.1 54.9 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.0 7.9 8.6 61.2 46.8 36.7 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.7 14.5 96.6 57.8 47.6 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 9.7 16.7 16.3 92.4 55.4 43.3 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 4.5 7.7 7.7 69.0 49.0 34.7 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------