***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.2 19.4 -0.2 50.2 48.8 20.7 21.2 22.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.2 19.3 -0.4 46.8 46.4 20.4 21.3 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.3 19.5 -0.3 48.7 47.3 20.7 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 13.4 13.6 16.2 -0.7 39.3 40.5 13.5 14.1 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.7 21.0 17.2 -0.8 38.9 39.6 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 19.1 19.1 14.6 -1.1 29.7 34.3 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 20.0 20.7 19.1 -0.5 46.7 45.7 20.0 20.8 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 8.0 8.4 15.2 -1.1 31.7 35.6 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 21.3 20.7 17.9 -0.6 43.5 42.2 20.4 20.9 21.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 20.1 20.3 16.2 -0.8 37.1 39.1 20.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 20.3 20.3 17.1 -0.9 34.6 37.5 20.2 21.0 21.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 19.3 19.8 16.3 -1.0 32.6 36.3 19.8 20.0 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 20.3 20.3 16.1 -1.1 30.8 35.6 20.4 21.1 22.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.2 17.9 -0.4 47.2 45.3 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 20.2 21.3 18.0 -0.6 43.9 43.5 20.5 21.4 22.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.8 21.0 16.5 -1.0 33.0 36.9 21.0 21.5 22.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.6 20.6 19.0 -0.4 47.1 46.1 19.8 20.8 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 19.6 19.7 15.6 -0.9 37.3 38.8 19.7 20.4 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.7 19.4 -0.4 47.0 46.9 20.1 21.0 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.9 13.0 -1.1 32.1 35.4 15.0 15.5 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.3 21.0 18.7 -0.6 44.1 43.0 20.5 21.2 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.2 19.1 -0.3 47.6 48.3 20.3 21.3 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.6 19.4 -0.3 48.3 47.4 20.6 21.6 22.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.7 17.7 -0.6 44.1 43.5 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.1 17.6 -0.6 42.6 43.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 19.4 19.7 15.3 -1.1 31.5 35.0 19.8 20.6 21.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.1 20.9 18.6 -0.3 46.9 47.1 20.5 21.0 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 20.3 20.8 16.8 -0.8 39.1 40.5 20.6 21.3 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.9 14.6 -1.0 34.4 37.0 14.8 15.2 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.0 19.4 -0.4 48.5 47.4 20.0 21.0 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------