***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.0 24.1 21.9 0.6 58.8 55.4 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 24.6 25.3 21.7 0.4 57.2 53.7 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.4 25.4 22.1 0.6 58.8 55.5 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.7 16.8 19.2 0.2 55.8 52.8 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 22.1 24.2 19.8 0.1 53.2 52.0 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 20.7 21.8 17.2 -0.1 49.3 49.8 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.6 21.7 0.4 56.0 53.3 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.2 11.4 17.9 -0.1 49.7 50.3 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.4 23.4 20.1 0.3 54.6 53.1 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 21.3 23.0 18.8 0.1 52.6 52.1 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 21.6 23.3 19.5 0.0 50.7 51.0 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.3 19.0 -0.1 48.3 49.7 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.3 18.1 -0.3 47.2 48.3 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.6 19.9 0.3 56.2 53.2 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 25.8 24.4 20.3 0.4 58.2 54.8 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.4 23.9 18.9 0.0 50.0 50.2 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.6 24.4 21.5 0.5 57.5 54.0 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 21.0 22.9 18.3 0.1 53.2 52.0 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.0 24.8 21.9 0.5 58.4 54.3 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 16.4 17.8 15.5 -0.1 51.2 50.1 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 21.6 23.9 21.1 0.4 56.1 54.1 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.2 25.4 21.5 0.6 58.9 54.9 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.0 21.9 0.5 58.8 54.8 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.6 23.6 20.0 0.3 55.7 53.6 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 21.7 24.4 19.9 0.4 56.9 54.2 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.4 22.3 18.1 -0.2 49.5 48.4 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 21.6 24.6 21.0 0.5 57.9 54.8 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 21.9 24.5 19.5 0.3 56.3 53.1 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 16.0 18.0 17.2 0.0 51.4 50.5 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 24.6 25.3 21.8 0.5 58.6 54.2 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------